Respected form analyst Dominic Beirne is warning punters to beware before jumping at the apparently generous odds on offer about boom filly Nechita in Saturday's Golden Rose.
Beirne believes Nechita is under the odds at around $2.50 in the first Group One race of the season.
"At her current price I'm passing on Nechita," Beirne said.
Beirne prefers the value represented by the five outsiders in the race - Doubtfilly, Amorino, Ashokan, Ninth Legion and Shamexpress.
"When first ante-post markets were released on the Golden Rose, three horses dominated the market and bookies were offering 20-1 except for Group One winners Pierro and Samaready and Group Two winner All Too Hard," Beirne said.
"This allows me to confidently state that at best, we are looking for a Group Two standard winner.
"And since no horse in this field has won at Group Two level, it's a matter of finding the one who's on the springboard to improve to that level."
Nechita is at $2.25 on Sportingbet with as much as $2.50 available on Friday on Betfair.
Beirne is also predicting an upset in the McEwen Stakes at Moonee Valley where he is tipping the $7.40 chance Stratcombe.
"He will settle fifth, from where I expect him to get a clear run to the outside and present into the race before the favourite Bel Sprinter.